The Pens survived a tougher-than-expected series against the Islanders thanks to a gritty performance by backup goalie Tomas Vokoun and timely goals from surprising sources: Paul Martin, Doug Murray, Tyler Kennedy, and of course Brooks Orpik, whose Game 6 OT winner was the best playoff moment Pittsburgh has known since Crosby lifted the Cup. The Islanders series will ultimately fade from memory, but it was important test of the team's mettle, and that the Pens were able to hold on by the skin of their collective teeth is either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on who you ask.
For the glass-half-full crowd (myself included), the series was a much-needed gut check, a necessary spot of adversity that will keep the Penguins humble and committed to improving. And hey, a playoff series win can never be taken for granted - we've learned that the last three seasons, when our playoffs were ended by teams we were "supposed to beat." The pessimists among the Pittsburgh fan base, which seems to comprise ever single person I talk to, are concerned that the Pens showed a litany of weaknesses that just didn't seem to be there in the regular season. The Islanders series should have been an ass-whupping to announce the team's championship intentions, and instead they showed their vulnerability and lack of composure. To these minds, any positive things that were accomplished in this series were outweighed by turnovers, mental mistakes, and an inability to close the door. These people are also very concerned about what we'll do with Marc-Andre Fleury, what's wrong with Evgeni Malkin, and whether Dan Byslma's the right man for the job.
The second round series between the Pens and Sens, beginning tonight at Consol, will likely exacerbate these concerns and add new ones to the pile. I've got three statements and three questions going into Game 1, as well as predictions at the end of this post.
Statement: The Penguins do NOT have a goaltending controversy (or, at least, they shouldn't).
I could have made this a question, the question that everyone has been debating: Will Bylsma stick with Vokoun, or go back to Fleury? But this question is pointless, contingent on so many factors that we can't foresee, and anyway we know the answer, at least tonight, is that Vokoun will be in net. No doubt this news will continue the hemming and hawing about what this decision is doing to Fleury's mental equilibrium, which could be permanently damaged if the Penguins don't give him token starts (or so the prevailing opinion seems to go). This fretting over the Penguins' need to reassure Fleury that he is still the Number One Goalie, to protect his confidence from any sense that the team is displeased with his play, totally contradicts what we know about Fleury: that he is a consummate professional and teammate, and a veteran who has experienced the heights and depths of being an NHL netminder. The thought that Fleury's ego needs to be massaged, or that his benching will cause him to suddenly doubt whether he has what it takes to be a starting goalie, is patently absurd.
Has there been any indication that Fleury is frustrated by the team's decision? Is there any doubt that what Fleury wants above all is to win, even if that means riding Vokoun's hot hand at his expense? Rather than framing the situation as a goaltending controversy, we might think of this as a beneficial position for the team, whereby they have two goalies they are comfortable starting in a playoff game. That's a luxury not many teams have, and it speak's to this team's depth at every position. Both Flower and Voks are veterans of this league, and both are working toward the same goal. They are not competing against each other, and you'll never see either of them pouting if his counterpart wins a game. Certainly, they both want to be The Man for this team, but in the playoffs there is no room for ego, or for controvery, Winning is the only thing that matters, no matter who is between the pipes.
Question: How will the Penguins adjust to playing against a real goalie?
Evgeni Nabokov's implosion in net for the Islanders allowed us to mask a lot of bad and lazy plays in that series, but that luxury ends now. Craig Anderson is the real deal, and he very likely would have taken home the Vezina Trophy if he hadn't been injured this season. He was excellent for the Sens in the first series, but now he faces the Penguins' well-armed offensive arsenal. The Penguins will have to work for every chance against the Sens. They will need to put shots on net from every angle, and crash the crease looking for rebounds; Kunitz and Morrow and Iginla will need to plant themselves in front of Anderson and assure that he doesn't get a good look at the pucks coming his way; Crosby and Malkin will need to take over a couple of games, and show that our area of strength is stronger than theirs. If Anderson starts looking invincible, this series could turn ugly for the Pens, so it will be vital to jump on him early and chip away at him.
The power play in particular will need to be on top of its game. Ottawa's penalty killed paced the league this season, and Anderson was a huge reason why. In 11 career games against Pittsburgh, Anderson has only given up a single power play tally. The Penguins will hope to dominate at even strength, but an operational popwer play would be a huge boost.
Statement: If the Pens want to stop the Senators from scoring, they need to start at the POINT!
The Islanders found a lot of success against the Pens by using their speed to get the puck deep into the offensive zone, and then working the puck to open points. Though the Penguins for the most part did a good job of getting in front of those shots, redirections and rebounds led to some big goals. The Senators have two defenseman in Erik Karlsson and our old friend Sergei Gonchar who can punish a team for leaving them open.
Karlsson is the team's most dynamic offensive player, and his early comeback from a severed Achilles cemented his reputation as a certified badass. Karlsson has an excellent shot from distance, but he really excels in skating the puck around defenders to create space, cause confusion and get good looks at the net. Any forward to who gets caught rushing the point risks ending up in his dust. And if he is allowed to pick up speed in the neutral zone, he'll do this to you:
Reminder that is a man who had his Achilles tendon severed very recently.
We know Gonch's talents: he is a prototypical power play quarterback, patient, smart with the puck, cool as a cucumber, and possessing of a slapshot that people write poetry about. If he's given a good look at the net, he'll rip one past you, and if you don't think he's going to score at least one big goal on us, you don't know Gonch.
The Penguins forwards are going to have to be a lot more aggressive in this series to short-circuit the Senator's blue-line offense. It starts with forechecking in the Senators' zone, then disrupting them in any way in the neutral zone - getting sticks in their way, making them change direction, anything to mess with their flow - and finally our wingers need to be responsible about staying on their points, blocking shots, and forcing them toward the boards and away from the net. Dupuis and Cooke will need to use their speed and tenacity on the power play to frustrate the defensemen, even if it risks freeing things up for the Sens' forwards.
Question: Will the Sens be out for revenge?
At this point, everyone except for Sens owner Eugene Melnyk - who promised a forensic investigation into the incident because he's hilarious - has come to terms with the fact that Erik Karlsson's horrific injury at the hands (er, feet) of Matt Cooke was an unfortunate accident. Despite the fact that Karlsson and coach Paul McLean have both expressed that there is no bad blood regarding this incident, the media is certainly going to grab on to this and shake it till it's completely lifeless, and Melnyk is already fanning the flames by calling out Penguins fans. Needless to say that Mario isn't about to stoop to that level. If there is any residual anger on the Senators' side, though, it would certainly be in the best interest of the Penguins to draw that out. Specifically, Matt Cooke has the potential to swing a game or two if he can get into the Senators' heads, get Chris Neil or somebody to take a stupid penalty here or there, do anything really to entice the Sens to focus on anything other than their game plan. We all remember Zac Rinaldo goading the Pens again and again in last year's playoffs, and we took the bait every time. If the Senators are worried about punishing Matt Cooke, they're less worried about stopping Crosby and Malkin. Cooke has played great hockey for the past couple games, and he has the opportunity to stamp his name on an entire series.
Question: When will Jason Spezza return?
We know that he won't be traveling to Pittsburgh for Games 1 and 2, but his possible return after that will hang over this series. Spezza is an absolute Penguin destroyer: in 33 career games against the Pens, he's put in 16 goals and 42 points, and I can say from personal experience that I just expect him to score every time he touches the puck against the Pens. The Sens have been able to create offense without Spezza thus far, but compared with the Pens - heck, compared with the Islanders - their offensive firepower is certainly lackluster. And even with fellow Penguin-assassin Daniel Alfredsson (64 points in 64 careeer games) in tow, they might need the threat of Spezza to keep up.
Statement: James Neal will have an impact on this series.
This is more wishful thinking than statement of presumed fact. For all the hand-wringing about what's wrong with Malkin (he of the 11 points in 6 games), his right-hand man Neal put up a stat line of one goal and one point in four games. He's dealt with various injuries, but as our designated sniper, he could play an instrumental role in figuring out Anderson. In the looking-for-good-omens-in-small-samples department, Neal scored in both games he played against Ottawa (plus a goal in the shootout). I can see him breaking out a bit in this series, with help from Geno.
Prediction: Pens in five
Honestly, who knows? Predictions are stupid. But I think the Pens start to click in this series. The Senators are a team they are comfortable playing - and they've had considerable success against them in the playoffs and regular season in the recent past - and the Pens will be able to throw four good lines against their defense, which (and this is the flip side of Karlsson's and Gonchar's offensive brilliance) will be overwhelmed. They continue to get scoring from throughout the lineup, they get to Anderson, and they start to resemble the team we were seeing in the regular season.
Series MVP: Matt Cooke
As I said above, he'll get in their heads. I'll also predict he scores a back-breaking goal at some point, and that Eugene Melnyk's forensic inquiry reveals that he indeed has winning in his DNA. Go Pens.
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